AaronGleeman.com
Friday, November 20, 2009

Link-O-Rama

  • Zack Greinke outed himself as an FIP-loving stathead after winning the AL Cy Young.


  • Obviously the true test will come when the AL MVP is announced Monday, but so far at least I'm very pleased with how the Baseball Writers Association of America has voted this year. They've matched my choices for AL Cy Young, NL Cy Young, and AL Rookie of the Year while disagreeing only on NL Rookie of the Year. Hopefully the logic continues next week.


  • As described (and pictured) in the New York Post, Derek Jeter celebrated his fifth World Series title by "frolicking with gorgeous gal pal Minka Kelly in St. Barts." Bastard.


  • I'm very pleased to note that former Twins beat reporter Phil Miller has landed a new job helping to cover the Timberwolves for the Minneapolis Star Tribune. Miller did a fantastic job covering the Twins at the St. Paul Pioneer Press before the newspaper fired him in the middle of the season and has lots of experience on the NBA beat from his time in Utah, so Wolves fans are lucky to have Miller for however long the job lasts. He's also one hell of a nice guy, so hopefully it turns into a full-time gig.


  • I'm in complete agreement with Newsweek's list of "12 comics who aren't funny."


  • I'd like to go through life without seeing New Moon, but am thrilled to have watched Three Wolf Moon:


    Aubrey Plaza and the world's greatest t-shirt is an amazing combination.


  • Most impressive accomplishment by a big-name poker player this month: Phil Ivey at the final table of the World Series of Poker main event or Erik Seidel at a restaurant table on Curb Your Enthusiasm? Seidel was also featured in Rounders, so he's quite a thespian.


  • This week former Deadspin contributor Rick Chandler joined me in the NBCSports.com blog family with Out of Bounds. For anyone keeping track, NBCSports.com's stable of blogs also includes Circling the Bases, Pro Football Talk, College Football Talk, Inside the Irish, and Beyond the Arc. We're going to have an amazing virtual Christmas party.


  • Speaking of former Deadspin staffers, Will Leitch penned an interesting piece about Bill Simmons forcing his way into the mainstream.


  • How amazing looking is Official Fantasy Girl of AG.com Keeley Hazell? By posing naked in protest of people wearing fur she's somehow managed to make PETA seem less annoying.


  • After burning through all 103 episodes of Lost in under two months I've moved on to Mad Men, which is also spectacular. Thanks to everyone who suggested it as a show that I'd like, because now I can't imagine life without Don Draper and Peggy Olson (although at first it freaked me out that Zoey Bartlet was forced to take secretarial work).


  • Also, based on recent television viewing I've come to the conclusion that someone needs to create a show starring Evangeline Lilly and Christina Hendricks. We'll call it "Lost Men" and, really, the plot and various other details are unimportant.


  • Speaking of great TV, if J.B. Smoove improv'd this scene with Michael Richards he's a genius:


    For future reference, Danny Duberstein is good at two things.


  • My mom cooked me a whole shitload of meatballs this week, yet despite being a total fatso I came up just short of the world record set earlier this month.


  • Against all odds, I'm not the author of this 5,000-word guide to mastering all-you-can-eat buffets.


  • The whole "unborn son" thing is awfully optimistic in my case, but this site has some good "rules."


  • I'm trying to decide which is the more exciting Twitter brush with greatness: Lynette Carolla sending me an at-reply or Joe Sebok re-tweeting one of my dreams?


  • New blog to check out: Schlepping Minnesota Sports.


  • Some of the highlights from my NBCSports.com blogging this week:

    - Lincecum narrowly defeats Cardinals duo for Cy Young
    - Greinke captures Cy Young with 25 of 28 first-place votes
    - Scioscia, Tracy named Managers of the Year
    - Greinke in great company with Cy Young at 25
    - What are the Red Sox planning at shortstop?
    - Holliday reports show how offseason rumors can vary wildly
    - Coghlan, Bailey named Rookies of the Year
    - Reds re-sign Hernandez to one-year deal with 2011 option
    - Brewers decline Looper's $6.5 million option
    - Hudson, Braves make three-year deal official


  • Finally, this week's AG.com-approved music video is Sia with a live version of "Little Black Sandals":




  • Once you're done here, check out my NBCSports.com blog and Twitter updates.


    Wednesday, November 18, 2009

    Twitter Mailbag: Answers

    Last week I asked for mailbag questions submitted via Twitter and you guys sent me a whole bunch of them, so here are some answers ...

    Where do you expect J.J. Hardy to bat in the lineup?

    This is tough to say before knowing who'll be playing second base, because history suggests that Ron Gardenhire will want to use a middle infielder in the second spot. J.J. Hardy wouldn't be a very good fit there because he has a poor .323 on-base percentage and grounds into a lot of double plays, which isn't the skill set that you want hitting directly in front of Joe Mauer. Ideally sixth or seventh would likely be the best spot for Hardy, taking advantage of his 20-homer power while minimizing the lack of OBP.

    What are your favorite non-Twins baseball blogs?

    Circling the Bases on NBCSports.com, but you knew that already. Some others, in no particular order:

    - U.S.S. Mariner (Dave Cameron, Derek Zumsteg)
    - Al's Ramblings (Al Bethke)
    - MLB Trade Rumors (Tim Dierkes)
    - Sweet Spot (Rob Neyer)
    - Big League Stew (Kevin Kaduk, David Brown)
    - From the Dugout (Sam Miller)
    - Major League Bastian (Jordan Bastain)
    - The Zo Zone (Todd Zolecki)
    - Ball Star (Sam Mellinger)
    - Dodger Thoughts (Jon Weisman)
    - Extra Bases (Peter Abraham)
    - Obviously, You're Not a Golfer (Matthew Leach)

    There are over 100 baseball blogs in my RSS feed for news-gathering purposes, so I'm surely leaving out a bunch of good ones, but those are a dozen that I consistently enjoy.

    Does Alexi Casilla have a future with the Twins?

    My sense is that the Twins aren't ready to give up on Alexi Casilla yet, but there's no real reason to hold out much hope. While it's tempting to remember how good he's been for various stretches, at the end of the day Casilla is a career .244/.301/.314 hitter through 243 games in the majors and also hit just .278/.352/.350 in 169 games at Triple-A. He's still just 25 years old, but that track record offensively and a lack of elite defense makes me very pessimistic about his long-term value.

    Could Dan Uggla be a solution at second base or is he too pricey?

    I'm not particularly high on Dan Uggla for the Twins, although certainly as a .257/.344/.486 career hitter with 30-homer power who draws lots of walks his bat would be a huge upgrade. However, he's also a bad defensive second baseman who's unwilling to change positions and figures to make at least $7 million via arbitration for 2010. Toss in the prospects to get him from the Marlins and the price is likely too high. Probably a moot point anyway, because the Twins don't target guys with 160 strikeouts a year.

    Which of the Twins' championship teams was your favorite?

    Definitely the 1991 team, because that was the first season that I remember watching. Helluva year to start being a hardcore baseball fan. At the time it seemed obvious to an 8-year-old me that the Twins would be in the World Series every year and I recall keeping overly detailed stats in a notebook during each game. Shocking, I know.

    If Joe Nathan were to be traded, what kind of value could the Twins expect?

    That's really difficult to predict. Joe Nathan has been an elite closer for his entire time in Minnesota, but he's also 35 years old and owed $11.25 million in each of the next two seasons, with a $12.5 million option or $2 million buyout for 2012. Even if they wanted to not many teams are in a position to give up significant value and take that kind of payroll hit for a guy who pitches 60-70 innings per season. Plus, there are a handful of other closers available via free agency or trade this winter, flooding the market.

    If the Twins did trade Nathan, who in the bullpen could take his place?

    For the most part any very good setup man can be a good closer, so the question is basically whether or not the Twins have any very good setup men. Jon Rauch has previous closing experience and prior to his injury Pat Neshek certainly looked capable of doing the job, but right now the Twins certainly lack a dominant setup man. Still, few people pegged guys like Eddie Guardado or even Nathan himself as an obvious closer success story before they were handed ninth-inning duties. It's a role, not a position.

    Realistic thoughts on Ben Sheets?

    I actually just wrote something about Ben Sheets over at Circling the Bases. He'd be an intriguing flier to take, because the demand doesn't figure to be particularly high coming off a lost season and prior to the injury he was consistently one of the best pitchers in baseball. My interest in Sheets would depend entirely on the price, but I'd certainly rather give him an incentive-laden one-year deal than hand out a multi-year contract to someone like Jarrod Washburn.

    What's the story with Glen Perkins? Should he stay or should he go?

    Glen Perkins has a 4.73 ERA and mediocre secondary numbers through 281.2 innings in the majors while missing a bunch of time with injuries and butting heads with the Twins over the handling of those injuries, so it wouldn't surprise me to see him traded this offseason. When healthy he's a solid fourth or fifth starter, but at 27 years old his upside is limited. There's certainly no need to trade him, but if the Twins can get decent value despite the injuries they should be willing to make a deal.

    Where is a good place to learn about baseball stats in layman's terms?

    This is a good question, but I'm not sure that I have a great answer. Fan Graphs, Baseball Prospectus, The Hardball Times, and Baseball-Reference.com all have very useful glossaries that explain various stats, although not always in tremendous detail. I'd start by doing some digging at those links and then Google topics that interest you most, but also try to read the analysis being done at Fan Graphs or THT to see how the stats are being used in context.

    What's the probability that Francisco Liriano returns to his 2006 form?

    Basically zero. Francisco Liriano was the best pitcher on the planet in 2006, albeit briefly, but has lost a significant amount of raw stuff since elbow surgery. I'm certainly not ready to give up on him being an impact starter long term and in general people are far too quick to criticize Liriano for what is no doubt an incredibly difficult situation for a young pitcher, but the guy from 2006 just doesn't exist at this point.

    If Liriano doesn't return to 2006 form, what is his role with the Twins?

    If he can't rediscover his control and learn to better command his fastball now that it's low-90s instead of mid-90s then Liriano is destined for a bullpen role. While coming up through the minors many felt that he'd end up as a reliever anyway, and Liriano certainly still has the stuff to be very effective there if things break right. Command and control are less important when you're going all-out for one inning.

    With the money equal, would you rather the Twins sign Orlando Hudson or Placido Polanco?

    Orlando Hudson, definitely. Similar recent value, but Hudson is two years younger and hasn't started to decline yet. But as noted in my look at realistic free-agent options for second base, I'd be in favor of the Twins pursuing either of them.

    Same question, but with Jarrod Washburn or Carl Pavano?

    I'd say Carl Pavano, but I'd be against giving either pitcher a multi-year deal unless the annual salaries were very reasonable. Pavano is probably a better bet for 2010 though, so he gets the nod.

    What happened to the Fat-O-Meter?

    Sadly, it might be a lost cause. I'm fatter than ever and busier than ever, which is a bad combination for any hope of jump-starting a weight-loss program. Losing over 90 pounds and then gaining it all back is probably the most depressing, pathetic, embarrassing thing that I've ever done. And that's really saying something. I might need to go on the Biggest Loser or have someone bet me $100,000 or something, because clearly just not wanting to be a fatso isn't working.

    Keeping other potential acquisitions in mind, would you start Nick Punto at second or third base? The bench isn't an option.

    All things being equaled I'd rather have Nick Punto playing second base, because his bat is less awful relative to the position and his glove has a shot to make a bigger impact up the middle. With that said, if you assume that Gardenhire is going to start him somewhere regardless of what other infielders the Twins add, then the best spot for Punto suddenly depends on whether the second baseman available to them is better than the third baseman available to them.

    What do you think the Twins' plans are for Wilson Ramos?

    Wilson Ramos is one of the Twins' best prospects, but after missing most of this season with injuries while at Double-A he's still far enough away from the majors that there's no need to really adjust plans for him quite yet. With that said, he's a 22-year-old catcher with the potential to be an asset offensively and defensively, and obviously the Twins already have someone like that behind the plate. He's likely still a couple years from potentially pushing for a big-league job, and a lot can happen in that time.

    Do the Twins have any shot at Chone Figgins or Pedro Feliz? Would either even be a good fit for the team or the payroll?

    Chone Figgins would be a nice fit, but he's going to be significantly out of the Twins' price range. Pedro Feliz is a possibility. I actually wrote about him as part of my look at the realistic free-agent options for third base, noting that he's either a poor man's Joe Crede or a healthy man's Crede, but then decided to publish only five options and he was the sixth choice. Very good defense, but not much else.



    Once you're done here, check out my NBCSports.com blog and Twitter updates.


    Monday, November 16, 2009

    Twins Notes: Washburn, Buscher, Huber, Crede, Neshek

  • Joe Christensen of the Minneapolis Star Tribune notes that the Twins "are expected to pursue" free agent Jarrod Washburn, which certainly isn't surprising. At various points over the past two years the Twins have been linked to Washburn in trade rumors, and depending on who you believe they were on the verge of acquiring him from the Mariners two seasons ago. However, based on his likely price tag signing Washburn would be a mistake for the Twins.

    An extreme fly-ball pitcher who took advantage of the Mariners' power-deflating ballpark and historically great outfield defense to post a 2.64 ERA through 20 starts this year, Washburn allowed 35 runs in 43 innings for the Tigers following a midseason trade. His struggles in Detroit can perhaps be blamed on a knee injury that required post-season surgery, but regardless of that he's a soft-tossing 35-year-old with mediocre control and a horrible strikeout rate who hasn't thrown 200 innings since 2003.

    Since that last 200-inning season Washburn has posted the following Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP) totals: 5.06, 5.01, 5.35, 5.30, 5.11, 4.97. Not surprisingly xFIP doesn't think very much of extreme fly-ball pitchers who lack pinpoint control and don't miss any bats, and once you add in his age and knee surgery Washburn is the epitome of a bad free-agent target. If he ends up with the Twins they better pray that Denard Span's early defensive ratings are fluky and the new ballpark plays very big.


  • Removed from the 40-man roster last week, Brian Buscher opted for free agency rather than re-sign with the Twins on a minor-league deal. Buscher is a tweener in that he's not strong enough defensively to be a regular third baseman and not strong enough offensively to be a regular first baseman, which makes him merely a decent bench player. He hit .266/.343/.356 with eight homers, 22 total extra-base hits, and a 93-to-53 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 502 plate appearances for the Twins.

    Plucked from the Giants organization via the minor-league phase of the Rule 5 draft three winters ago, Buscher hit .309/.385/.493 in 103 games between Double-A and Triple-A in 2007 and .319/.402/.514 in 53 games at Triple-A last year, but showed an extreme lack of power with the Twins and ultimately isn't much of a loss. Buscher's patient, relatively high-contract approach could make him a solid pinch-hitter and backup at both corner infield spots, but at 29 years old there isn't much upside to be had.


  • Justin Huber initially agreed to a minor-league contract with the Twins after being trimmed from the 40-man roster, but the Hiroshima Carp of the Japanese League are reportedly close to acquiring him. Huber is the type of player who Japanese teams often target, because he has a lengthy track record of minor-league success without a big-league future. In fact, he's accumulated a grand total of 175 plate appearances in the majors despite hitting .283/.375/.484 over 3,533 plate appearances in the minors.

    UPDATE: Seth Stohs reports that Juan Morillo has also signed with a team in Japan despite the Twins adding him to the 40-man roster last week.


  • Bill Smith indicated that the Twins are still open to re-signing Joe Crede, but view him as more of a fallback option than they did at this time last year. He recently underwent a third back surgery, but will be ready for spring training and no longer has any pretense of getting anything but an incentive-laden one-year contract. He's hardly an ideal target at third base, but as noted in last week's "Realistic Free Agent Options" look at the position Crede for $2 million or so wouldn't be an awful last resort.


  • After missing the entire season following Tommy John elbow surgery, Pat Neshek recently blogged that he's throwing fastballs, changeups, and sliders off a mound at "max effort" and "feels great." What to expect from Neshek in 2010 is anyone's guess, because for every pitcher who bounces back quickly from the surgery there's a Francisco Liriano who leaves his dominant stuff on the operating table, but before going down he had a 2.91 ERA, .188 opponents' average, and 142 strikeouts in 120.2 innings.


  • Joe Mauer won his second straight Gold Glove, which might be somewhat meaningful if not for the fact that Derek Jeter also won his fourth Gold Glove and Franklin Gutierrez failed to capture his first. Yet another award that, for me at least, has lost all meaning thanks to years and years of bad choices.



  • Once you're done here, check out my NBCSports.com blog and Twitter updates.