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Friday, February 05, 2010

Twins Sign Orlando Hudson To One-Year Deal

I'm sometimes accused of being overly critical of the Twins' front office, but my response is usually that it can't help but look that way when my "job" here is to analyze and give opinions about their moves and the "bad" have simply outnumbered the "good" since Terry Ryan stepped down as general manager in September of 2007. In other words, Bill Smith's first 18 months on the job just didn't feature a whole lot of moves to praise.

He dealt Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett for Delmon Young and Brendan Harris, got a mediocre return for Johan Santana, and gave out millions to Craig Monroe, Livan Hernandez, Nick Punto, Mike Lamb, Adam Everett, Juan Rincon, and Luis Ayala. Was every move a bad one? Of course not, but the entire body of work was pretty damn ugly and I said so as the moves rolled in, without the benefit of hindsight, which understandably comes across as "overly critical" at times. But thankfully, times have changed.

Smith's second season on the job was sort of a mixed bag, but certainly included several moves worth praising, and this offseason the front office has basically been flawless from trading for J.J. Hardy and signing Jim Thome to retaining Carl Pavano and letting Orlando Cabrera leave. And now the icing on the offseason cake is inking Orlando Hudson to a one-year, $5 million deal, which in addition to simply being a very good move is also something that I've long been campaigning for in this space.

Operating under the assumption that Ron Gardenhire will do everything he can to play Punto regularly somewhere, the Twins' early moves left them with essentially one lineup opening at either second or third base. Gardenhire's tendency to use a speedy infielder as his No. 2 hitter also made it likely that one of the two guys playing those positions would slide into the lineup between Denard Span and Joe Mauer. Hudson capably checks both boxes as a good all-around second baseman and nice No. 2 bat.

Last year Twins second basemen ranked dead last in all of baseball with a combined .209/.302/.267 line, so Hudson's career .281/.348/.431 mark represents a massive upgrade and his adjusted OPS+ has actually improved in four straight seasons despite the fact that he turned 32 years old this winter. He doesn't really stand out in any one area offensively, but per 150 games Hudson usually bats around .285 with 10 homers, 50 total extra-base hits, 60 walks, and 5-10 steals. He's just a good, solid player.

Among guys who played at least 100 games at second base Hudson's adjusted OPS+ ranked 9th, 7th, 13th, and 7th during the past four seasons, so even accounting for some potential age-related decline he's likely to be among the position's top 10 hitters in 2010. He's posted an on-base percentage above .350 in each of those four seasons and is a switch-hitter with similar production from either side of the plate, both of which make him a particularly good fit in the No. 2 spot.

Hudson teams with Span to put two strong on-base threats directly in front of the lineup's big boppers and also provides a potential right-handed bat in the midst of lefties Span, Mauer, Justin Morneau, and Jason Kubel. He also gives the Twins a pretty decent chance to have above-average hitting from eight of the nine spots in the lineup, with only third base looking like a clear weak spot (assuming that Hardy bounces back). Of course, while a very good fit for the Twins at $5 million Hudson still has some flaws.

Defensively he has an excellent reputation built by winning four Gold Gloves in the past five years, but a look at some advanced metrics suggests that his range began slipping around age 28. Ultimate Zone Rating pegged Hudson as right about average defensively in both 2006 and 2007 before falling to five runs below average per 150 games between 2008-2009. In other words we'll constantly hear praise for Hudson's glove this season, but given his age and UZR numbers he's likely to be average at best.

Another potential problem area is Hudson's high ground-ball rate. He had the fourth-most grounders in baseball last year at 56 percent and is at 50 percent for his career, which along with good but not great speed and Span constantly being on first base could equal a ton of double plays. He's hit into a DP in 16.5 percent of his DP chances over the past three years. To put that in context Mauer is often criticized for frequent double plays, yet has done so in only 12.4 percent of his DP chances during that time.

So he's fairly old, not as good as his reputation defensively, and likely to hit into a bunch of DPs batting second, but let's be very clear: Hudson is an excellent acquisition in an offseason full of sound moves and represents a massive all-around upgrade over the various options the Twins could have trotted out at second base. Smith, Rob Antony, and the rest of the front office deserved any criticism they received for their 18 months on the job and now they deserve credit for what has been a fantastic offseason.




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Thursday, February 04, 2010

Twins Close to Signing Orlando Hudson?

I'll have a full breakdown of the deal if/when things become official, but in the meantime click here.




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Wednesday, February 03, 2010

Top 40 Twins Prospects of 2010: 30, 29, 28, 27, 26

Other entries in Top 40 Twins Prospects of 2010 series: 1-5, 6-10, 11-15, 16-20, 21-25, 31-35, 36-40.
30. Estarlin De Los Santos | Shortstop | DOB: 1/87 | Bats: Switch | Sign: D.R.

YEAR LV PA AVG OBP SLG HR XBH BB SO
2007 RK 322 .264 .341 .363 1 20 26 66
2008 A- 269 .242 .304 .309 2 9 19 55
2009 A+ 284 .290 .330 .397 1 19 13 49
Signed by the Twins out of the Dominican Republic as an 18-year-old in 2005, Estarlin De Los Santos was a surprise addition to the 40-man roster before the Rule 5 draft in December. He played last year at high Single-A and managed just a .727 OPS there, making it unlikely that any team would have been willing to keep him in the majors for all of 2010, but clearly the Twins like De Los Santos enough to not take the minimal chance of losing him.

De Los Santos' glove is definitely the big draw, because he had a career-year offensively in 2009 and still hit just .290/.330/.397 with one homer and a 49-to-13 strikeout-to-walk ratio while being limited to 68 games with multiple injuries. For his career he's batted .259/.322/.347 in 227 games, but Twins vice president of player personnel Mike Radcliff recently described him as "the only true shortstop we have in our system" with "a plus arm and plus hands."

His defensive reputation alone was nearly enough for De Los Santos to crack this list in both 2008 and 2009, so now that he's shown some semblance of offensive potential it's an easy call. Great glove or not he'll obviously need to improve at the plate to be an asset in the majors and the Twins sending him to Double-A as a 23-year-old is a sign that they think his switch-hitting gap power and excellent speed will eventually equal more production.
29. Reggie Williams | Second Base | DOB: 10/88 | Bats: Left | Draft: 2007-4

YEAR LV PA AVG OBP SLG HR XBH BB SO
2008 RK- 96 .286 .358 .440 0 10 9 10
2009 RK 173 .250 .316 .462 7 17 13 30
Picked out of a California high school in the fourth round of the 2007 draft, Reggie Williams signed too late to debut that year and then played only briefly in the rookie-level Gulf Coast League in 2008. Still on the conservative path last season, Williams played 43 games at rookie-level Elizabethton before going 6-for-10 with two doubles and two walks in three games following an end-of-the-year promotion to low Single-A Beloit.

Williams has logged a grand total of just 281 plate appearances in three years since being drafted, but his performance has been very encouraging for a player who was supposed to be all about raw tools and athleticism at the time. He's batted .276 with 29 extra-base hits and a .468 slugging percentage in 69 games spent in pitcher-friendly environments while showing decent plate discipline and strike-zone control with a 42-to-24 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

Along with that offensive promise Williams has played all three infield spots defensively after originally being drafted as a shortstop, suggesting that his glove could also have considerable value down the road. Williams should see his first full-season action in 2010 as a 21-year-old and a solid campaign at Single-A would make the Twins spending $153,000 to lure him away from Cal-State Fullerton look like a great decision. In a system that's perpetually short on quality infielders, he's very intriguing.
28. Michael McCardell | Starter | DOB: 4/85 | Throws: Right | Draft: 2007-6

YEAR LV G GS ERA IP H HR SO BB
2007 RK- 4 2 2.50 18.0 11 2 25 3
RK 8 8 2.00 45.0 29 3 70 5
2008 A- 22 21 2.86 135.1 110 10 139 25
2009 A+ 17 17 3.93 94.0 98 10 78 16
AA 9 9 4.10 48.1 45 4 40 16
Michael McCardell dominated at rookie-ball and low Single-A after being drafted in the sixth round out of Kutztown University in 2007, but my worry last year at this time was that modest raw stuff made him "no sure thing to clear the high-minors hurdles." Sure enough his performance deteriorated splitting last season between high Single-A and Double-A, with a 3.98 ERA as an older-than-average pitcher in offense-suppressing environments that included just 118 strikeouts versus 143 hits in 142 innings.

McCardell's control remained excellent with 32 walks in 596 plate appearances, but the mostly younger opponents batted .264 against him and he had a difficult time keeping the ball on the ground. Throwing strikes should keep McCardell on the prospect radar, but as a fly-ball pitcher with a high-80s fastball who doesn't miss many bats his long-term upside is limited and he'll turn 25 years old in April despite making a total of just nine starts above Single-A.

Because of his small-school pedigree and pinpoint control McCardell has sometimes been compared to Kevin Slowey, but Slowey's numbers in the minors were mind-boggling good at every level and he's already logged over 300 innings in the majors despite being less than a year older than McCardell. In reality McCardell's upside is likely closer to someone like Josh Towers, which is to say a serviceable but very hittable fifth starter or long reliever. Hopefully he'll get his first crack at Triple-A this year.
27. Trevor Plouffe | Shortstop | DOB: 6/86 | Bats: Right | Draft: 2004-1

YEAR LV PA AVG OBP SLG HR XBH BB SO
2007 AA 555 .274 .326 .410 9 48 38 89
2008 AA 249 .269 .325 .410 3 23 16 43
AAA 272 .256 .292 .420 6 26 14 47
2009 AAA 477 .260 .313 .407 10 38 34 68
Trevor Plouffe had been promoted very aggressively since the Twins took him out of high school in the first round of the 2004 draft, but pushing him through the system despite the lack of any major offensive development now leaves him as a 24-year-old about to spend a third straight season at Rochester. He has six seasons under his belt, including 1,553 plate appearances between Double-A and Triple-A, yet has never posted even a .750 OPS at any level and owns a .256/.318/.385 career line.

His production has been remarkably consistent in its mediocrity, with zero real strides made in any key areas, and Plouffe's lack of progress at the plate is especially damaging because he's no sure thing to be an asset defensively at shortstop. His glove gets mixed reviews and while Plouffe played exclusively shortstop last year the Twins used him at third base extensively in 2008. If he's not at least an average defensive shortstop in the majors it's tough to see Plouffe having much value.

Plouffe is certainly still young enough for something to click offensively, but as the Twins saw with Luis Rivas and could be seeing with Delmon Young at some point actual production takes precedence over youth. He's about to enter his seventh professional season and fourth straight year in the high minors, but aside from his age and status as a former first-round pick Plouffe has shown almost no reason for optimism. My guess is that by this time next year he'll either be in the majors or off the 40-man roster.
26. Shooter Hunt | Starter | DOB: 8/86 | Throws: Right | Draft: 2008-1

YEAR LV G GS ERA IP H HR SO BB
2008 RK 4 4 0.47 19.0 4 0 34 6
A- 7 7 5.46 31.1 26 2 34 27
2009 RK- 7 5 9.60 15.0 10 0 8 25
A- 7 5 10.70 17.2 15 1 18 33
Sadly, those numbers aren't a misprint. Normally the Twins don't target pitchers with poor control, but they couldn't pass up the chance to draft Shooter Hunt when he fell to them with the No. 31 overall pick in 2008. Baseball America ranked Hunt as the draft's No. 4 pitcher after a dominant season at Tulane University and he blew away rookie-ball hitters upon signing, but he had a tough time throwing strikes following a promotion to low Single-A and then completely fell apart last year.

Hunt's control wasn't great in college and in ranking him as the Twins' fifth-best prospect heading into last year I wrote that "learning to harness his raw stuff will be the biggest challenge," but no one could have predicted a potentially career-wrecking descent into Rick Ankiel, Mark Wohlers, and Steve Blass territory. Hunt simply couldn't throw the ball over the plate, issuing 58 walks, uncorking 15 wild pitches, and plunking seven batters in 32.2 innings between rookie-ball and low Single-A.

When he's right Hunt has top-of-the-rotation stuff and the Twins were very fortunate that he fell into their laps on draft day, but history suggests that he'd have been better off blowing out his elbow or shoulder and missing a couple years rather than trying to come back from a debilitating case of the yips. Right now his 2010 season should be considered a success if Hunt can simply show some semblance of command, regardless of whether he gets knocked around in the process.




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Tuesday, February 02, 2010

Top 40 Twins Prospects of 2010: 35, 34, 33, 32, 31

Other entries in Top 40 Twins Prospects of 2010 series: 1-5, 6-10, 11-15, 16-20, 21-25, 26-30, 36-40.
35. Danny Rams | Catcher | DOB: 12/88 | Bats: Right | Draft: 2007-2

YEAR LV PA AVG OBP SLG HR XBH BB SO
2007 RK- 106 .258 .311 .361 0 9 5 22
2008 RK 166 .228 .301 .428 5 16 15 71
2009 RK 72 .355 .444 .790 6 14 8 22
A- 195 .229 .308 .429 7 21 18 77
After struggling through his first two pro seasons Danny Rams got off to a monster start at rookie-level Elizabethton last year, batting .355 with six homers and a 1.235 OPS in 16 games. That earned him a promotion to low Single-A, but Rams resumed struggling in his first taste of full-season action and hit just .229 with 77 strikeouts in 48 games. The good news is that he gunned down 37 percent of stolen base attempts, suggesting that Rams may have a shot to stick behind the plate long term.

His strong arm was merely an afterthought when the Twins made Rams a second-round pick in 2007, as Baseball America ranked him as the draft's top power bat among high schoolers. Rams' power has actually translated just fine to the pros with 18 homers and 62 total extra-base hits in 137 games for an outstanding .208 Isolated Power. Unfortunately that pop is masked by the inability to make consistent contact, with 195 strikeouts in 496 at-bats leading to a lowly .252 batting average.

Toss in just 41 non-intentional walks in 553 trips to the plate and Rams has basically been swinging hard in case he hits something so far, but he remains on this list for at least one more year due to his impressive power potential and the fact that he may still end up being able to play a passable catcher. When he doesn't strike out Rams has hit .415 with a .757 slugging percentage as a pro, but whiffing 35 percent of the time in the low minors is usually a very bad sign for a guy whose bat will carry him.
34. Bobby Lanigan | Starter | DOB: 5/87 | Throws: Right | Draft: 2008-3

YEAR LV G GS ERA IP H HR SO BB
2008 RK 13 13 2.78 74.1 74 5 65 9
2009 A- 22 22 4.52 123.1 130 10 102 29
A+ 7 2 4.70 15.1 21 1 14 4
As a Division II program Adelphi University isn't exactly a baseball hotbed, but the school that produced Gary Dell'Abate and Public Enemy also provided the Twins with their 2008 third-round pick. A big righty who ranks as the school's all-time leader in strikeouts, Bobby Lanigan had a 1.94 ERA as a junior and then signed very quickly for $417,000, debuting at rookie-level Elizabethton with a 2.78 ERA and 65-to-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 13 starts.

He moved up to low Single-A to begin last year and then got a late-season promotion to high Single-A, where he worked mostly out of the bullpen. Lanigan pitched quite a bit better than a 4.54 ERA in 138.2 innings overall would suggest, posting a 116-to-33 strikeout-to-walk ratio while allowing 11 homers for a much nicer 3.25 FIP. However, his rate of 7.5 strikeouts per nine innings was nothing special against low-level competition and he was fairly easy to hit, with opponents batting .272.

All of which suggests that his upside is limited, but Lanigan combines a low-90s fastball with a strong slider and good control, so he definitely has major-league potential. If the Twins focus on his ERA they may make him a full-time reliever this season, but Lanigan certainly warrants more of a chance to stick as a starter after just one year of full-season experience. Either way he throws enough strikes and gets enough ground balls to be worth watching and won't be 23 years old until May.
33. Chris Herrmann | Left Field | DOB: 11/87 | Bats: Left | Draft: 2009-6

YEAR LV PA AVG OBP SLG HR XBH BB SO
2009 RK 277 .297 .391 .453 7 22 33 40
Chris Herrmann was picked by the Orioles in the 10th round of the 2008 draft after being named to the junior college All-American team as a catcher at Alvin Community College in Texas, but decided not to sign and instead transferred to the University of Miami. That move worked out well for Herrmann, as he started in left field for the Hurricanes and hit .341/.455/.528 in 60 games before receiving a $135,000 signing bonus as the Twins' sixth-round pick last June.

Herrmann is the fifth University of Miami player selected by the Twins since 2006, and that list includes fellow top-40 prospects Danny Valencia and Carlos Gutierrez. And for whatever it's worth, Herrmann's college numbers were slightly better than Valencia's production at Miami, including a team-best .448 on-base percentage with 41 walks in 265 trips to the plate. He continued to show good plate discipline in his pro debut, batting .297/.391/.453 with 33 walks in 59 games at rookie-level Elizabethton.

Herrmann has previous experience at catcher and third base, but played mostly left field at both Miami and Elizabethton, so that's likely his long-term home and will make his offensive development key. The numbers from his pro debut don't mean a whole lot because hitters from major college programs are supposed to knock around rookie-ball pitchers, but he displayed more power than expected and clearly has a good eye at the plate.
32. Jose Morales | Catcher | DOB: 2/83 | Bats: Switch | Draft: 2001-3

YEAR LV PA AVG OBP SLG HR XBH BB SO
2007 AAA 411 .311 .366 .399 2 28 30 44
2008 AAA 208 .315 .348 .426 4 13 8 28
2009 AAA 242 .336 .413 .436 2 16 28 27
MLB 134 .311 .381 .361 0 6 14 22
Drafted by the Twins in the third round out of Puerto Rico in 2001, Jose Morales started his pro career as an infielder before moving behind the plate full time in 2003. Six seasons later his defense remains somewhere between atrocious and passable, and he narrowly maintains "prospect" status at age 27, but as a switch-hitter with a line-drive swing who rarely strikes out and has consistently posted strong batting averages Morales looks capable of being a solid backup to Joe Mauer.

Last year Morales shared catching duties with Mike Redmond while Mauer spent April on the disabled list, spent a second stint with the Twins in May, and then returned to Minnesota for good when rosters expanded in September. Morales has hit .317 in 222 games at Triple-A and .328 through 55 games in the majors, which along with Ron Gardenhire turning to him at designated hitter down the stretch has the fans who don't know any better wrongly assuming that he's destined to be an impact hitter.

In reality Morales failed to homer in 134 plate appearances for the Twins after going deep a grand total of eight times in 868 trips to the plate at Triple-A and also doesn't walk much, so he's not destined for stardom. However, strong contact skills should keep his batting average above .275 and he deserves an extended opportunity after spending three years at Rochester, where he batted .317/.373/.413 while striking out just 11.4 percent of the time. Don't expect greatness, but he should be plenty useful.
31. Derek McCallum | Second Base | DOB: 3/88 | Bats: Left | Draft: 2009-4

YEAR LV PA AVG OBP SLG HR XBH BB SO
2009 RK 260 .241 .310 .382 5 19 23 55
A native Minnesotan who played both baseball and hockey at Hill-Murray, Derek McCallum was picked out of high school by the Twins in the 50th round of the 2006 draft. He opted to attend the University of Minnesota instead of signing for minimal cash and parlayed a huge junior season for the Gophers into a $210,000 bonus as the Twins' fourth rounder last June. Named a first-team All-American at second base, McCallum led the Big Ten in hits, homers, slugging percentage, and RBIs.

He also broke Robb Quinlan's school record by knocking in 86 runs in 59 games and became the first Gopher to bat .400 since 1994. McCallum struggled in his pro debut at rookie-level Elizabethton, hitting just .241 while striking out 55 times in 57 games after whiffing a total of 72 times in three years with the Gophers. He did show some solid pop with five homers and 19 total extra-base hits in 228 at-bats and drew a fair number of walks while receiving positive reviews for his glove at second base.

In theory at least McCallum should've thrived against less experienced competition in the Appalachian League, so the fact that he hit just .241 and had a tough time making consistent contact is worrisome. Given his rough pro debut it's also worth noting that prior to his monstrous junior campaign McCallum slugged just .417 through his first two college seasons. He'll move up the ladder to full-season ball in 2010 and look to show that he's capable of doing damage with a wood bat.




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Monday, February 01, 2010

Top 40 Twins Prospects of 2010: 40, 39, 38, 37, 36

Other entries in Top 40 Twins Prospects of 2010 series: 1-5, 6-10, 11-15, 16-20, 21-25, 26-30, 31-35.
40. Joe Testa | Reliever | DOB: 12/85 | Throws: Left | Sign: America

YEAR LV G GS ERA IP H HR SO BB
2008 RK- 8 0 1.32 13.2 9 0 17 1
A+ 4 2 4.91 14.2 14 1 13 7
2009 A- 25 1 2.56 45.2 26 1 63 23
A+ 21 0 1.22 37.0 29 2 53 18
Joe Testa set school records for career starts, innings, strikeouts, and wins during his four seasons at Wagner College, but the diminutive left-hander went undrafted in 2008, signed with the Twins as a free agent, and shifted to the bullpen as a pro. Two years later he cracks this list because his numbers are simply too good to ignore. Testa has racked up 146 strikeouts in 111 pro innings, posting a 2.26 ERA while holding opponents to a .195 batting average.

Undrafted free agents who put up great numbers as relievers in the low minors generally don't warrant getting all that excited, but certainly Testa is at least worth keeping tabs on as he moves up the ladder. Poor control makes him an even worse bet, as Testa walked 41 in 82.2 innings between low Single-A and high Single-A last year, but a 1.96 ERA, 116 strikeouts, and just three homers allowed still made him the most effective pitcher in the entire Twins system based on Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP).

Testa's raw stuff definitely doesn't match those amazing numbers, but he's not a total junk-baller either. He gets plenty of movement on a wide assortment of off-speed pitches, but his fastball also tops out in the low-90s. Obviously moving beyond the low minors and facing more experienced hitters will show if Testa is the real deal or not, but if Wagner College can produce the reigning AL Rookie of the Year in Andrew Bailey why can't that same small-college pitching staff have been home to another solid arm?
39. Loek Van Mil | Reliever | DOB: 9/84 | Throws: Right | Sign: Netherlands

YEAR LV G GS ERA IP H HR SO BB
2007 RK 13 0 2.62 24.0 14 0 23 17
2008 A- 28 0 3.22 44.2 36 5 42 25
2009 A+ 25 0 2.86 34.2 29 3 23 17
AA 8 0 2.45 7.1 7 0 5 6
Loek Van Mil has logged a grand total of just 154 innings in four pro seasons since the Twins signed him out of the Netherlands, but as a 7-foot-1 pitcher whose given name is "Ludovicus" his intrigue as a prospect goes well beyond the raw numbers. If he reaches the big leagues Van Mil would be the tallest player in MLB history and the Twins significantly increased the odds of that happening by adding him to the 40-man roster this offseason.

Van Mil's raw stuff certainly doesn't match his gargantuan presence on the mound, mostly because he doesn't throw 110 miles per hour, but he's added velocity since transitioning to the bullpen full time and is far from a novelty act. His command is spotty and Van Mil hasn't missed a ton of bats, yet opponents have hit just .233, .221, and .169 off him in the past three years. It remains to be seen if he can stay that tough to hit without more strikeouts, but it's possible normal ball-in-play rules won't apply to a giant.

Despite his limited workload as a pro Van Mil is already 25 years old, but the Twins have promoted him somewhat aggressively. He reached Double-A in his fourth pro campaign and figures to start this year back at New Britain, with a second-half promotion to Rochester and perhaps even a September call-up to Minnesota in the cards if he fares well. His prospect status has always been based more on intrigue than performance, but the scale is starting to tip in the other direction and he has a 3.03 career ERA.
38. Anderson Hidalgo | Third Base | DOB: 9/88 | Bats: Right | Sign: Venezuela

YEAR LV PA AVG OBP SLG HR XBH BB SO
2008 RK- 107 .364 .453 .466 1 7 15 13
2009 RK 205 .291 .379 .469 6 19 25 38
Signed out of Venezuela as a 17-year-old in 2006, Anderson Hidalgo batted over .300 in back-to-back seasons in the Venezuelan Summer League before making his American minor-league debut in 2008 with a .364 batting average in the rookie-level Gulf Coast League. He rose to rookie-level Elizabethton last season and batted below .300 for the first time as a pro, but .291/.379/.469 from a 20-year-old in a pitcher-friendly environment was still plenty impressive.

In fact, his .848 OPS was 20 percent above the Appalachian League average and Hidalgo has now hit .316/.405/.468 in 76 rookie-ball games after batting .308/.384/.417 over 121 games in Venezuela. He's a very long way from the majors and the flameout rate for guys who knock around rookie-level pitching is incredibly high, but Hidalgo has shown some definite upside offensively while hitting .311 with gap power and a 101-to-90 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

He's played second base and some outfield previously, but Hidalgo has spent the past two seasons strictly as a third baseman despite being very small for the position at just 5-foot-9. Deibinson Romero cracked this list in both 2008 and 2009 thanks to his Hidalgo-like production in rookie-ball only to see his prospect stock plummet after being exposed to full-season competition, so hopefully this story is a bit different. The early numbers suggest plenty of upside, but we'll find out a lot more this season.
37. Steven Tolleson | Second Base | DOB: 11/83 | Bats: Right | Draft: 2005-5

YEAR LV PA AVG OBP SLG HR XBH BB SO
2007 A+ 571 .285 .388 .382 5 33 79 97
2008 AA 397 .300 .382 .466 9 38 44 74
2009 AA 173 .258 .343 .391 2 14 16 20
AAA 394 .270 .338 .375 6 24 36 52
The son of former major leaguer Wayne Tolleson, Steven Tolleson was picked by the Twins in the fifth round of the 2005 draft after a three-year career at the University of South Carolina. Despite being a fifth rounder with college experience Tolleson moved slowly through the Twins' system, reaching Double-A for the first time as a 24-year-old in his fourth pro campaign. He had a breakout year there, displaying his usual strong on-base skills while adding power to the mix, but took a step backward last season.

Despite being a 25-year-old who spent all of 2008 at Double-A while hitting .300/.382/.466 he was sent back to New Britain to repeat the level and batted just .258/.343/.391 in 38 games before a promotion to Rochester. He didn't fare any better at Triple-A, batting .270/.338/.375 in 92 games, but did maintain good strike-zone control while seeing action everywhere except first base and catcher. Versatility is key for Tolleson, because he doesn't have the glove to be a regular shortstop and his bat is backup caliber.

Tolleson makes solid contact, draws a fair number of walks, and has some gap power, but he's hit just .276 with a .400 slugging percentage in 500 games as a minor leaguer despite a very deliberate climb up the organizational ladder. Toss in modest speed with a good but not great glove and Tolleson now looks destined to be a utility man at best, so at 26 years old this is a make-or-break time for his odds of reaching the majors. UPDATE: Just hours after posting this, Tolleson was lost to Oakland on waivers.
36. Josmil Pinto | Catcher | DOB: 3/89 | Bats: Right | Sign: Venezuela

YEAR LV PA AVG OBP SLG HR XBH BB SO
2008 RK- 94 .329 .394 .541 1 13 9 14
2009 RK 230 .332 .387 .610 13 29 19 39
Signed out of Venezuela as a 16-year-old, Josmil Pinto's best position defensively is likely designated hitter and he's yet to advance past rookie-ball. But he's here because batting .330/.390/.590 through 77 pro games is just really impressive. Pinto topped the Appalachian League in home runs and slugging percentage last year, hitting .332/.387/.610 while knocking in 55 runs in 53 games. Those numbers are obviously fantastic in any context, but consider that the league as a whole hit just .257/.328/.384.

Pinto's overall production was 34 percent above par, including an Isolated Power that was 118 percent better than the league as a whole. He fails to rank any higher because smashing rookie-ball pitching hardly guarantees future success and regardless of competition we're talking about just a few hundred plate appearances. Plus, if reports of Pinto's lacking defensive ability prove accurate he'll have to keep hitting like that to have any chance at big-time value.

In fairness Pinto split time between designated hitter and catcher at Elizabethton and actually threw out 46 percent of steal attempts without making a ton of errors. The only thing less predictive than offensive numbers at rookie-ball are defensive numbers at rookie-ball, but there's at least reason to believe that Pinto isn't a complete disaster behind the plate. Assuming that the Twins promote him to full-season competition at low Single-A this year we should get a much clearer picture of Pinto's bat and glove.




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