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Friday, December 05, 2008
Link-O-RamaI'm leaving Sunday for Las Vegas, where I'll spend next week covering the MLB winter meetings at the Bellagio hotel. As was the case during my first trip to the winter meetings back in 2006 my plan is to post any Twins-related information and non-baseball stories on AG.com, but the bulk of my writing will be found at Rotoworld and NBCSports.com. I'll be posting new entries on the Hot Stove Blog constantly throughout each day, so make sure to bookmark the page or sign up for the RSS feed. My agenda for Las Vegas includes doing a whole bunch of blogging for Rotoworld, meeting Phil Miller of the St. Paul Pioneer Press for the first time, trying to avoid talking about soccer while hanging out with Official Twins Beat Writer of AG.com LaVelle E. Neal III, being a fly on the wall of the jam-packed media room while the sport's writing heavyweights do their thing, and interviewing Ron Gardenhire again. Oh, and perhaps playing a little poker too. It should be a very interesting week.If any AG.com readers are planning to be in Las Vegas next week for the winter meetings, drop me an e-mail and we can try to meet up. And if any AG.com-reading media members feel like being friendly to a lowly blogger, let me know and I'll try to get over my shyness long enough to introduce myself and/or buy you a beer. While you're hopefully bookmarking the Hot Stove Blog and I'm hopefully packing for my trip, here's the usual Friday link dump ... The lesson? As always, never get so drunk that you're willing to have sex with some guy named Ross. For years I've used Stern and Carolla as sort of the background music for my day-to-day life, listening to them while writing or watching sports on television or driving or simply sitting around the house. In fact, old episodes of Loveline playing on my iPod are what will help kill time Sunday during my flight to Las Vegas. All of which is a very long, overly detailed way of saying that I'm a huge fan of talk radio and tend to become obsessed with constantly listening to certain shows. At various points Tony Kornheiser, Dan Barreiro, Bubba The Love Sponge, and a few other talk-radio guys have joined Stern and Carolla in my listening mix, but recently I've been devouring the Two Jacks In The Hole archives at Poker Road. However, Two Jacks clearly isn't a poker show (they sarcastically play a clip from Rounders every time someone even mentions the word poker) and in fact technically isn't even a radio show. Instead, it's a radio-caliber podcast hosted by Scott Huff and Joe Stapleton. There are re-occurring bits, callers, news segments, and all sorts of other stuff that you'd normally hear on a morning or drive-time radio show, except without the annoying traffic updates, lengthy commercial breaks, and pretentiousness. Oh, and it's also extremely funny. Huff and Stapleton have an incredible on-air chemistry that sort of mixes Carolla's ability to entertainingly riff on random subjects and Stern's ability to be brutally honest about his personal life.I've listened to a ton of talk radio over the years and have rarely heard a mix of intelligence, humor, and on-air chemistry like what Huff and Stapleton bring to the table, which is pretty amazing for a couple of guys who started doing the show for literally zero audience just a couple years ago and have turned it into something with a devoted following. In fact, it reminds me of the "this is fun, let's see if we can turn it into something" approach that blogs like this one have taken and that makes it even more enjoyable. Anyway, if you like Stern, Carolla, Kornheiser, Barreiro, or talk radio in general, listen to a few episodes of Two Jacks In The Hole and give it a chance to grow on you. After initially only occasionally listening to the show while checking out the various poker-related content over at Poker Road, I've recently become hooked to the point of listening to their entire archive during the past couple weeks. Right now they do a two-hour show once a week, but if life is fair they'll be snatched up by some radio station and get big. However, that part pales in comparison to the fact that the "sloppy seconds" Avery was talking about is none other than former Official Fantasy Girl of AG.com Elisha Cuthbert. Seriously. She's currently with Dion Phaneuf of the Calgary Flames after previously dating Avery and Mike Komisarek of the Montreal Canadians. As they say, you can take the girl out of Canada, but you can't take Canada out of the girl. Or something, I'm still trying to wrap my head around the notion of Cuthbert as "sloppy seconds." A newspaper film critic is like a canary in a coal mine. When one croaks, get the hell out. The lengthening toll of former film critics acts as a poster child for the self-destruction of American newspapers, which once hoped to be more like the New York Times and now yearn to become more like the National Enquirer. We used to be the town crier. Now we are the neighborhood gossip.On a related note, my MinnPost colleague David Brauer reports that there's yet another batch of layoffs and buyouts coming at the Star Tribune. Once you're done here, check out my latest "Daily Dose" column over at Rotoworld.
Thursday, December 04, 2008
Relievers and BlakeTwo weeks ago the Giants signed Jeremy Affeldt to a reasonable two-year, $8 million contract after he topped my list of free-agent relievers the Twins should target this offseason. Bob Howry wasn't on that list of targets because at the time he was a "Type A" free agent and would have required giving up a first-round pick to sign, but his exclusion did come with the disclaimer that Howry "would definitely move near the top of my preferred targets list" if the Cubs didn't offer him salary arbitration. Sure enough that's exactly what happened earlier this week when the Cubs turned down any draft-pick compensation by declining to offer Howry arbitration. Unfortunately he's still not an option for the Twins, because the Giants moved quickly Wednesday to sign Howry to a one-year deal worth $2.8 million plus incentives. Affeldt and Howry certainly weren't the only free agents who can help the Twins' bullpen, but as two of the best options it's frustrating to see them both snatched up with reasonable, short deals. Between not dealing for Chad Bradford or LaTroy Hawkins at the trading deadline and not beating the Giants' offers for Affeldt or Howry the Twins have missed multiple opportunities to address their weak bullpen without having to break the bank. There are still some good reliever targets available--Brandon Lyon, Eric Gagne, and Will Ohman from my original list, plus Russ Springer after the Cardinals chose not to offer him arbitration--but signing either Affeldt or Howry would have put me at ease. While the Twins have yet to do anything on the reliever front, Joe Christensen of the Minneapolis Star Tribune reports that they've offered Casey Blake a two-year, $12 million contract with a third-year team option. Handing a multi-year contract to Blake doesn't strike me as a great move because he's already 35 years old and is unlikely to be a significant upgrade over the Brian Buscher-Brendan Harris platoon that the Twins could trot out at third base for $700,000. Blake is a solid enough player, but investing relatively big money in mediocre veterans when there are younger players capable of filling the job has hurt the Twins on an annual basis and they don't seem to have learned anything from those mistakes. Blake is sub par defensively at third base and has been almost exactly average offensively for the position, so any age-related declines would leave him below average as a regular and that type of 35-year-old rarely proves to be a sound investment.Much has been made of the Twins' need for a right-handed bat and over the past three seasons Blake has posted a solid .270/.368/.486 line against left-handed pitching, but during that same time Harris hit .304/.370/.443 against lefties. Toss in Harris being seven years younger than Blake and it's safe to say that they'll essentially be equally effective versus southpaws. Blake has also hit .276/.338/.447 against right-handers over the past three years, but Buscher is capable of approaching that production. Buscher has batted .297/.354/.411 through his first 279 plate appearances against righties after hitting .327/.421/.540 against them at Triple-A. Harris is capable of matching Blake's production versus lefties and Buscher is capable of matching Blake's production versus righties, and platooned correctly they'd provide 90 percent of the hitting and similar defense for 10 percent of the cost. Filling the spot with one player has value, but so does trusting cheap 28-year-olds instead of an expensive 35-year-old. If the Twins can indeed get Blake for $12 million over two seasons you won't hear much objection from me, because he's a quality player and the risk would be minimal. However, given that they're reportedly bidding against the Dodgers landing Blake seems unlikely without raising the salary or committing to a third year, both of which would be mistakes given that he's a mediocre 35-year-old who doesn't provide a big upgrade. Trusting Buscher and Harris while signing Affeldt or Howry would've made more sense. Once you're done here, check out my latest "Daily Dose" column over at Rotoworld.
Wednesday, December 03, 2008
AG.com Live Chat Today at NoonNo live chat next week because I'll be in Las Vegas covering the winter meetings, so it may be a while before you have another chance to waste an afternoon asking me questions. As always, the doors will open for submitting questions 15-20 minutes before noon and I'll keep going until they stop rolling in. Once you're done here, check out my latest "Daily Dose" column over at Rotoworld.
Monday, December 01, 2008
Twins Notes: Young, Morlan, Reyes, and Iron ManTwins left fielder Delmon Young is "very, very much out there," according to one rival GM. Young, a right-handed hitter, would make particular sense for the Phillies, but the Twins will need to be careful in any trade discussions. Getting poor value for Young would only compound their mistake in acquiring him as part of a six-player trade in which they sent shortstop Jason Bartlett and right-hander Matt Garza to the Rays.There are some prominent national baseball columnists who strike me as having spotty track records when it comes to passing along rumors, but Rosenthal is atop my list of trusted writers. Not only does he break more big stories than anyone, I've seen him in action at the winter meetings two years ago and was blown away by how hard he works. In other words, a single paragraph from Rosenthal does more to convince me that Young is being shopped than 50 notes from Hartman and Walters would. While it'll no doubt be a glossed-over aspect of a blockbuster trade, the difference between Rincon and Morlan is substantial and increases the already strong chance that the deal will be unkind to the Twins over the long haul. ... The 21-year-old former third-round pick has dominated in the minors and projects as a late-inning reliever who could be ready to make a significant big-league impact as soon as 2008.Morlan struggled through a shoulder injury early on this season, but finished very strong to end the year with a 3.64 ERA, 45-to-15 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and .240 opponent's batting average in 47.2 innings at Double-A as a 22-year-old. Shoulder problems aside his performance this season did nothing to alter my opinion that he's a very good relief prospect, which is why it was so surprising to see that the Rays opted not to add him to their 40-man roster. Morlan is now eligible to be selected in next week's Rule 5 draft and it would be nice to see the Twins recoup some of the value from the Young trade by taking him, but my guess is that Morlan won't make it to them. Even speculating that a specific player will be selected at all in the Rule 5 draft is somewhat pointless because the whole thing is very unpredictable, but Morlan is exactly the type of prospect many teams target and he's featured in all sorts of articles highlighting potential Rule 5 steals. In addition to the looming decision on Reyes, today's deadline also means that some pretty intriguing free-agent relievers could become options for the Twins if their respective teams decline to offer them arbitration. For now guys like Juan Cruz, Russ Springer, and Bob Howry probably aren't on the Twins' radar because signing them would involve losing a first-round pick, but if no arbitration is offered they'll be free to sign without any compensation and would be very worthwhile targets. UPDATE: The Twins offered arbitration to Reyes and the Diamondbacks did the same with Cruz, but Howry and Springer are now eligible to be signed without draft-pick compensation. I felt very strongly that he should have been the American League MVP in 2006 over his teammate Justin Morneau. This year, I felt like Mauer was both the best player in the American League and--just as a slightly different way of looking at it--the most irreplaceable player. ... I realize that this is not the only way to look at this thing--probably not even the best way to look at it--but I have to say I have no idea why people who watch this team more closely than I do insist that Morneau is the more valuable player.Posnanski is definitely right in saying that most Twins fans think Justin Morneau is more valuable than Mauer, but that sentiment has certainly never been expressed in this space. Of course, Posnanski has suggested multiple times that Ron Gardenhire is the best manager in baseball and that's also not a sentiment you're likely to see here, so we don't agree on everything. Once you're done here, check out my latest "Daily Dose" column over at Rotoworld.
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
AG.com Live Chat Today at NoonDoors open for submitting questions 15-20 minutes before noon and I'll keep going until the questions stop rolling in, so get an early start on Thanksgiving by ignoring work in favor of some live chatting. Once you're done here, check out my latest "Daily Dose" column over at Rotoworld.
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