Things had already started to unravel for the Twins at the time of my last mailbag column, but in the three weeks since then their playoff odds have shrunk from 22 percent to 3 percent. On a related note: Many of the questions you submitted for today's mailbag focused on the future rather than the present. Trust me, I get it.
Let's open up the mailbag and see what's on your minds about a third-place team that seemingly ran out of gas four months into a six-month race.
Note: Submitted questions have been edited for clarity and length.
How does the qualifying offer work for Ryan Jeffers and what is the reasoning/math behind the projected $23 million he would get? — Willie V.
Teams can tender a qualifying offer to departing free agents, and it's essentially a one-year contract equal to the average of MLB's top 125 salaries. Last offseason it was $22.025 million, so it'll likely be roughly $23 million this time around.
If the Twins were to make a qualifying offer to Jeffers, he can either accept it and return on that one-year deal or decline it and become a free agent. If he declines it and signs elsewhere, the Twins would get a draft pick as compensation and the team signing Jeffers would lose a draft pick.
I think the Twins should definitely make a qualifying offer to Jeffers. He's likely to decline it, in which case they'd get a valuable pick to make up for not trading him at the deadline. And if he accepts, paying a premium to keep a very good catcher without needing to make a long-term commitment is a positive outcome anyway.
Jeffers has been limited to only 79 games because of the fractured hamate bone that cost him two months in the middle of the season, but he's hit .269/.370/.502 to lead all MLB catchers in OPS. This is clearly a career-year, but Jeffers also sits fifth among all MLB catchers in OPS during the past four seasons combined.
It may end up being the Twins' biggest decision of the offseason, especially after they opted to hang onto Jeffers at the deadline and turn down some pretty solid offers from contending teams. Letting a player of his caliber, at a crucial up-the-middle position, leave for nothing in return would be a mistake.
What do you think the Twins' future plans are with Matt Wallner? — Aaron K.
My assumption is Wallner has already played his last game in a Twins uniform.