One week from the MLB trade deadline and it's still not obvious which direction the Twins will take — or should take — between now and 5:00 p.m. on August 3.
Losing teams are usually deadline sellers and the Twins are 53-54 with six games left to play. However, the American League is so weak that they're just one game out of a playoff spot. FanGraphs projects the Twins with 33 percent playoff odds, a level at which teams are commonly deadline buyers.
Even within the specific buyer/seller spectrums, it's not clear which end — light, medium, heavy — the Twins would be most likely to land. It's also possible they'll try to thread the needle between each approach by, say, buying pitching help and selling Ryan Jeffers rather than losing the impending free agent for nothing.
Here's a look at where things stand for the Twins with deadline day approaching.
The Pohlad Factor
Payroll is down $30 million from last season, and backup catcher Victor Caratini is the Twins' most notable addition since Tom Pohlad took over as their new lead owner in mid-December, yet he's spent those seven months at the helm touting a desire to be aggressive and a willingness to invest more in a competitive team.
Words are just words until proven otherwise. And whatever benefit of the doubt fans initially may have given Pohlad will vanish if, after seven months of talking a big game about being different, the Twins make no effort to improve a team with a real shot to make the playoffs. What weight would his words carry after that?
Aaron Gleeman
It's clear, from having talked to Pohlad on and off the record, that he'd prefer the front office be deadline buyers, in part because of the impact it could have on the field for a team in the playoff mix and in part because of the impact it could have off the field for a fan base rightfully skeptical his actions will ever match his talk.
However, it's also clear he wants to avoid intruding on first-year general manager Jeremy Zoll's decision-making power and autonomy by publicly declaring a trade deadline path that could diminish the front office's leverage in negotiations or by placing his finger on the scale to push them toward buying no matter what.
With that said, Zoll seemingly should also be motivated to buy if the Twins are in a similar spot on August 3. He wasn't hired by this Pohlad and he got promoted to GM two weeks before spring training when Derek Falvey and the Twins "mutually agreed to part ways" without warning. Zoll might be auditioning to keep the job.
Selling Scenarios
Focusing on the most logical players the Twins could be shopping, and ruling out Byron Buxton, who has repeatedly made it abundantly clear he has no interest in waiving his no-trade rights to leave Minnesota, here's how I'd order their 10 most valuable (realistic) trade chips: