In reviewing the Twins through two months, I used Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP) and a comparison to last season's numbers to show that the starting rotation hadn't pitched as badly as their ugly ERAs suggested, citing Scott Baker and Francisco Liriano as the prime examples. Sure enough the rotation turned things around in June, going 13-7 with a 3.61 ERA and 124-to-45 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 169.1 innings spread over 27 starts after coming into the month with a collective 4.95 ERA.

Baker went 4-0 with a 3.20 ERA in six starts and Liriano went 2-1 with a 3.77 ERA in five starts, and the group as a whole saw its luck even out after a rough April and May. On the other hand, after evaluating the bullpen's performance through two months my take was that it "is going to need reinforcements to avoid remaining a clear weakness." Instead the Twins' bullpen combined for a 2.53 ERA and 65-to-26 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 67.1 innings in June.

With the rotation predictably getting on track and the bullpen trio of Joe Nathan, Matt Guerrier, and R.A. Dickey combining to allow just two runs in 31.2 innings the Twins went 15-12 in June after going 11-11 in April and 14-16 in May. And that success came despite the offense crashing back down to earth by averaging just 4.1 runs per game in June after scoring 6.5 runs per game in May. Here's a look at the individual xFIPs through three months:

STARTERS             IP     xFIP        RELIEVERS            IP     xFIP
Scott Baker        92.0     4.18        Joe Nathan         31.0     2.50
Kevin Slowey       87.2     4.35        Matt Guerrier      35.1     4.39
Fran Liriano       89.2     4.57        R.A. Dickey        44.0     4.44
Glen Perkins       67.0     4.81        Luis Ayala         32.1     4.79
Nick Blackburn    107.1     4.98        Jose Mijares       23.0     5.22
Anthony Swarzak    27.2     5.02        Sean Henn          11.1     5.33
                                        Jesse Crain        17.2     5.41

As was the case a month ago everyone in the rotation is basically in the 4.15-5.00 range, with the main difference being that their ERAs now more closely resemble their xFIPs. Blackburn is the outlier, as his 3.10 ERA varies wildly from a 4.98 xFIP. Part of that comes from leading the team with seven unearned runs allowed while the rest of the staff has combined for nine, but xFIP also knows that someone with just 45 strikeouts in 107.1 innings and a ground-ball rate of 46 percent can't sustain a 3.10 ERA.

Similarly, the bullpen's June success should be tempered somewhat by the relievers' mediocre overall xFIPs. Nathan has been his usual amazing self and has thankfully gotten more action of late, but when the primary setup men have xFIPs of 4.39, 4.44, and 5.22 it doesn't bode particularly well for the second half. I'm confident that the rotation has righted the ship and certainly Guerrier, Dickey, and Jose Mijares have looked at times like a playoff-caliber trio, but ultimately the Twins still need one more quality arm.

While the pitching staff was thriving in June the offense ranked just 10th in the 14-team league in runs, declining by 40 percent from the lineup's otherworldly May performance. Joe Mauer's out-of-nowhere power display more or less ceased, as he managed just three homers over 109 at-bats, but he batted .353/.403/.490 to basically match his career mark of .323/.404/.475. In other words he stopped being some sort of cross between Babe Ruth and Barry Bonds to just resume being an MVP-caliber catcher.

Justin Morneau also dropped off considerably in June, but was still plenty productive at .255/.342/.459, and Jason Kubel kept rolling at .291/.371/.628 with eight homers. Michael Cuddyer was also solid at .278/.333/.481, but no other hitter managed even a .725 OPS as Joe Crede struggled, Delmon Young and Carlos Gomez continued to flail away, and Denard Span hit just .208 while missing half the month with an inner-ear infection.

An amazing May sandwiched between a poor April and June adds up to ranking ninth in the AL in runs per game overall. All of which is disappointing given some of the big individual performances, but not really surprising given that they've had a sub par offense in all but one of Ron Gardenhire's seasons as manager. Here's a look at Runs Above Replacement, which calculates how many runs someone was worth both offensively and defensively compared to a replacement-level player at the same position:

                      RAR                              RAR
Joe Mauer            38.1        Nick Punto           -3.1
Justin Morneau       25.9        Matt Tolbert         -5.6
Joe Crede            20.7        Alexi Casilla       -10.8
Denard Span          15.5        Delmon Young        -15.2
Michael Cuddyer      13.3
Jason Kubel          12.1
Brendan Harris        9.3
Jose Morales          7.4
Mike Redmond          1.2
Carlos Gomez          0.3
Brian Buscher         0.1

Despite missing all of April with a back injury Mauer ranked as the second-most valuable player in the league through three months, checking in at 38.1 runs better than a replacement-level catcher in his 54 games. Morneau and Crede also ranked 17th and 27th among AL players respectively, but got there in much different ways. Morneau was the league's fourth-best hitter, producing 22 runs above average at the plate. Crede was the AL's second-best fielder, producing 11 runs above average with his glove.

Mauer, Morneau, Crede, and Span also ranked 1-2-3-4 in that order through the end of May, so there's no real change at the top, but Kubel and Brendan Harris moved up considerably in June to essentially give the Twins seven solidly productive spots in the lineup. Unfortunately a lineup has nine places, and second base and the third outfield spot continue to drag the Twins down in a huge way. The fivesome of Gomez, Young, Nick Punto, Matt Tolbert, and Alexi Casilla were 34.4 runs below replacement level.

Or put another way, those five guys have basically canceled out Mauer's amazing season. Of that group only Gomez rates above replacement level, and just barely, because his glove in center field remains very good and his measly .229/.283/.331 line at the plate is made somewhat more palatable by the fact that center fielders as a whole have a lower OPS than any position but catchers and shortstops. Young, on the other hand, is awful defensively and has hit worse than Gomez at a high-offense position.

In fact, at 15.2 runs below replacement level Young has been the single worst all-around player in the entire American League. Of course, that was also the case last month. He's batted .256/.281/.318 at a position where the average guy hits .270/.343/.442, putting him 22 percent below average offensively in addition to Ultimate Zone Rating pegging him as 9.3 runs below average on defense. And the amazing thing is that Young has done all that damage in just 185 plate appearances spread over 50 games.

Casilla ranks as the third-worst player in the AL despite spending a big chunk of the year at Triple-A, which is what happens when you hit .180/.242/.225 with poor defense. Tolbert hasn't been any better, hitting .185/.274/.235 with similarly poor UZR numbers as Twins second basemen combine to provide worse production than any other position in baseball. June was the Twins' best month and the pitching staff made strides, but adding a capable second baseman and a reliever would still have a big impact.

David Brauer of MinnPost reports that Twins beat reporter Phil Miller has been laid off by the St. Paul Pioneer Press. In addition to being one hell of a nice guy Miller did a fantastic job covering the team, so this is terrible news for Twins fans. Kelsie Smith moves up to become the primary beat writer and will do a nice job, but the newspaper's Twins coverage can't help but suffer without Miller. This really stinks, on a personal level and as a fan who likes as much good content about the team as possible. Ugh.

Last year the Twins tied the all-time MLB record for bunt hits in a season with 68, while no other team managed even 40. Carlos Gomez led baseball with 30, which would have ranked sixth among teams, and Alexi Casilla was second in the AL with 16 despite playing only 98 games. Along with Gomez and Casilla combining for 46 bunt hits, Nick Punto chipped in seven, Joe Mauer, Denard Span, and Matt Tolbert had four apiece, and nearly five percent of the Twins' total hits came via bunt.

This season has been a much different story, as the Twins rank just sixth in bunt hits and are on pace to finish with fewer than half as many as they had last year. Much of the decrease in bunt hits comes from Gomez being relegated to the bench for 32 of 77 games after starting 143 times last season and Casilla playing his way back to Triple-A, because they obviously can't rack up bunt hits from the dugout or Rochester. With that said, bunting less often even when they're in the lineup has also been a factor.

Gomez laid down a bunt in 11 percent of his plate appearances last year, reaching safely 45.5 percent of the time to become just the fifth player since 1959 to bunt for at least 30 hits in a season. This year Gomez has bunted in just six percent of his plate appearances while reaching safely 27.3 percent of the time. In other words, he's bunted about half as often and done so about half as successfully. Much has been made of Gomez's decline at the plate, but bunting accounts for nearly the entire change.

Gomez is hitting just .225 with a .358 slugging percentage on non-bunts this year, which while terrible is no worse than last season when he hit .233 with a .348 slugging percentage on non-bunts. In terms of actual hitting he hasn't changed at all, but the difference is that bunts accounted for over 20 percent of his hits last year and Gomez batted .455 when he laid one down. This year bunts have accounted for just eight percent of Gomez's hits and he's batted just .273 when he lays one down.

Twins fans have heard all about Gomez's supposed potential offensively since the team acquired him as the centerpiece of last offseason's Johan Santana trade, but through over 900 plate appearances in the majors he's hit .227 with a .337 slugging percentage when not bunting. Those are putrid numbers and cast serious doubt on Gomez's ability to develop into an impact hitter, but the good news is that he remains one of the game's fastest players and is a career .433 hitter when dropping a bunt down.

Because of his great glove in center field Gomez will always have value regardless of how poorly he's doing at the plate, but given his success bunting and how horrible he's been when swinging away it makes no sense for him to be laying one down half as often this year. Joe Vavra and company surely have him focusing on putting together better at-bats and taking the ball the other way, which have the potential to make him a competent hitter, but in the meantime his only real weapon has gone missing.

Casilla bunted almost as often as Gomez last year, laying one down in nine percent of his trips to the plate, and was nearly as successful by reaching safely on 43 percent of his attempts. In addition to the bunting Casilla was also more successful than Gomez on non-bunts, hitting .265 with a .368 slugging percentage. Those non-bunt numbers still weren't good, but they're positively Mauer-esque compared to Casilla hitting .162 with a .210 slugging percentage on non-bunts this season.

As a team the Twins have gone from bunting once every 36 plate appearances and reaching safely 40 percent of the time in 2008 to bunting once every 51 plate appearances and reaching safely 28 percent of the time this year. That might not seem like a huge difference and certainly the lineup's dramatically increased power is a much more important change overall, but when it comes to the light-hitting speed guys like Gomez, Casilla, Tolbert, and Punto all struggling the lack of bunts is definitely curious.

I'll keep my thoughts on the Timberwolves' point guard-heavy draft shorter than usual because various trade rumors could render all of this moot, but for the most part I'm pleased. Many people seem to be overestimating Ricky Rubio's odds of developing into an impact player rather than just a flashy passer, but his falling into the Wolves' laps at No. 5 overall was close to a best-case scenario and Jonny Flynn is one of the handful of guys from a fairly weak draft class whom I'm certain will be a good NBA player.

With that said, Ty Lawson is another in that handful and the Wolves sadly teased me by selecting him only to swap him for a future first-round pick. Obviously keeping Lawson after taking Rubio and Flynn would've been miles beyond overkill, but he was great value at No. 18 and I'm convinced that he'll have a strong career. Taking his North Carolina teammate, Wayne Ellington, was a good fit at No. 28 given the roster's complete lack of shooters and if nothing else he'll be a nice long-term bench scorer.

David Kahn's assurances that Rubio and Flynn will work in tandem are intriguing and drafting two point guards isn't so crazy when one of them is 18 years old and no sure thing to be freed from his contract, but I'm skeptical to say the least. However, at the end of the day the rebuilding Wolves' primarily goal should've been simply acquiring as much talent as possible and Rubio, Flynn, Ellington, and a future first rounder is a plenty nice haul in that respect. I'm very curious to see how it all shakes out.

Luis Ayala is the latest in a long line of veteran free agents who didn't make it to the All-Star break with the Twins after the signing was criticized in this space. Handed a one-year, $1.3 million deal this winter as the Twins chose saving money on a veteran mediocrity rather than actually upgrading a bullpen that desperately needed another capable late-inning option, Ayala predictably proved to be merely a decent middle reliever by posting a 4.80 xFIP in 32.1 innings. In fact, my projection was "right around 4.50."

Of course, the funny thing about the Twins' decision to designate Ayala for assignment yesterday is that he was hardly the least-effective member of the bullpen and his replacement is far from a good bet to provide an upgrade. Ayala was horribly mismatched as a late-inning setup man, but the Twins should have known that when they signed him and even while failing to fit their preferred role he was relatively useful as a rubber-armed middle man. In other words, he was who they (should have) thought he was.

In a situation reminiscent of last month's swap of Craig Breslow for Sean Henn, the Twins have called up minor-league veteran Bobby Keppel to replace Ayala in the bullpen. At the time of the Breslow-Henn switch my analysis was that "it sure seems like the Twins chose the new lefty reliever over the old lefty reliever just because they felt the need to shake things up." Ayala-Keppel is the right-handed version of that same sentiment, right down to Henn and Keppel signing minor-league deals on the same day.

Keppel is a 27-year-old veteran of a decade in the minors who owns a 5.16 ERA in 572 career innings at Triple-A, including marks of 5.67, 5.48, and 5.99 during the previous three seasons. Those horrible performances came as a starter and Keppel has worked primarily as a reliever this season for the first time in his career, which along with a nice-looking 2.44 ERA in 55 innings at Rochester apparently has the Twins optimistic about his potential. They shouldn't be, because he's basically a poor man's Ayala.

Keppel is a moderate ground-ball pitcher with mediocre control and little ability to miss bats, managing just 28 strikeouts in 55 innings this season and 4.4 strikeouts per nine innings throughout his Triple-A career. He's looked good at Rochester thanks to the defense turning over 72 percent of his balls in play into outs and just one of the 47 fly balls hit against him traveling over the fence, but much like Henn he simply doesn't have a track record that suggests the ability to consistently get big-league hitters out.

Since that swap of left-handers Breslow has a 4.39 xFIP in 18 appearances with the A's and Henn has a 5.04 xFIP in 13 appearances with the Twins, and dropping Ayala for Keppel figures to work out much the same way. Meanwhile, the Twins boast a pair of legitimately promising relief prospects in Robert Delaney and Anthony Slama, but the former was passed over for his Triple-A bullpen mate Keppel and the latter can't even get a promotion to Rochester despite already being 25 years old.

Delaney has a 2.42 ERA, 50-to-10 strikeout-to-walk ratio, and .225 opponents' batting average in 48.1 innings between Double-A and Triple-A, including 10 strikeouts versus just two non-intentional walks in a dozen innings since last month's promotion to Rochester. He's a 24-year-old right-hander who's thrived at every level, posting a 2.03 ERA and 235-to-38 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 222 career innings, yet the Twins are choosing Triple-A filler like Keppel over him.

Slama had a 1.01 ERA with 110 strikeouts and a .173 opponents' batting average in 71 innings at high Single-A last season and has a 2.70 ERA with 53 strikeouts and a .225 opponents' batting average in 36.2 innings at Double-A so far this year, but the Twins inexplicably haven't even seen fit to let him join Delaney at Rochester six months after his 25th birthday. While two of the organization's top arms are at New Britain and Rochester, the Twins' bullpen ranks 11th in xFIP and 10th in Win Probability Added.

Dating back to Pat Neshek's elbow injury last May the Twins have clearly needed bullpen help, but Bill Smith refused to bring in a veteran setup man at the trading deadline, targeted mediocrities like Ayala rather than legitimate upgrades this winter, and is now turning to a journeyman with a 5.13 ERA in 572 innings at Triple-A rather than give Delaney or Slama a chance. The situation has gone from frustrating to bewildering and the front office's decision-making under Smith continues to disappoint.